Daily Recession Index Archive

Eight days of climbing, then flat. R-Word Index: 91 — Alarmed, fifth day in this band. AI pass kept naming the same thread today: people stu…

91 — Alarmed, fourth day. Highest all year. 2008 comparisons stayed in today's AI scan; the Great Depression joined them. Eighth straight up…

R-Word Index: 89, Alarmed. The same data without the AI scan would read 62 — High Concern. The 27-point gap is the widest in 30 days. Today'…

Second consecutive day at Alarmed. R-Word Index: 85. Yesterday the AI scan: personal stories about running out of savings. Today: open crash…

82 — Alarmed. The early-April peak was 73; today cleared it by 9 — first reading above 80 in 30+ days. Five up days in a row, +43 vs same da…

75 — High Concern, third day. AI analysis today singled out Meta and Microsoft layoffs. The line has gone from 36 to 75 in seven days — 30-d…

69 — High Concern, second day. Up 33 points from same day last week. The AI pass caught what the keywords missed: food costs, tech layoffs, …

66 — High Concern. Second +13 day in a row, first reading above 60 since April 14. If this pace held one more day, we'd be retesting the ear…

53 — Elevated. Up 13 in a day. One detail from the AI pass stuck out: gold is falling while recession-worry climbs back up. Usually those tw…

40 — Elevated, second day at the line. S&P 500 at a record high. Jobless claims 214k last week (still "historically healthy"). Markets, labo…

40 — Elevated. A one-point tick, but it tips the label back. The "which business collapses first" thread from yesterday's AI pass did not go…

Six days down, one day up. Index at 39 — still Low Concern, one point from crossing back. The AI pass surfaced a new thread type: speculatio…

Two days at 36 — Low Concern. Same day last week: 56. Down 20 in a week with no matching news. Recession-word volume fell. Debt-advice and s…

36 — Low Concern. Down 30 points in five days. First time out of the Elevated band in a month. Not relief exactly — more like the conversati…

43 — Elevated. The index keeps falling but the worry did not leave. It just changed shape. People stopped debating recession odds and starte…

R-Word Index: 48 — Elevated, third day easing. Silver is showing up in recession threads again. People reach for physical hedges when someth…

R-Word Index: 51 — Elevated. Two days, same number. Looks like nothing. Flat at this level is its own signal — the worry is settling. People…

51 — Elevated. Lowest in a month. Oil past $120 from the Iran crisis, IMF warning of a global slowdown, and yet recession talk is quieter th…

R-Word Index is 66 — High Concern. Tariffs got struck down, but people kept worrying about jobs and prices. Turns out the reasons for the an…

What is the world worried about today? A week ago: prices. This week: jobs. The R-Word Index is at 56 (Elevated) but the texture of the worr…

One day below High Concern. That is all we got. The R-Word Index bounced back to 60 after dipping to 55 yesterday. People are not panicking …

55 — Elevated. First time below High Concern in two weeks. The Fed says no recession, tariff effects are temporary. Meanwhile people online …

The R-Word Index is 62 — essentially flat. But read the underlying posts and the mood is very specific: jobs and prices. One example today w…

R-Word Index dropped 8 points to 64 — biggest drop in weeks. Still High Concern, but the trend is finally moving the right way. People are s…

72. The R-Word Index climbed back near its peak after a brief easing. High Concern. The Fed says the job market is "low hire, low fire." Onl…

R-Word Index up to 68 — High Concern. Stocks had their best week since November. The index went the other way. Wall Street rallied. Main Str…

R-Word Index: 73 → 67 → 65 in three days. Still High Concern, but easing. Iran deadline today, oil past $120, CPI due this week — and yet th…

178K jobs added in March — a strong headline. But the R-Word Index only dipped to 67. Still High Concern. People read past headlines. They s…

R-Word Index at 73 — High Concern for six days. Oil past $120 from the Hormuz crisis, inflation heading toward 4%, and today's jobs report c…

Five straight days above 70. R-Word Index at 71 — High Concern. What stands out: people are not writing about markets or tariffs. They are w…

"Liberation Day" tariffs just landed — 25% average across nearly all imports. Markets in freefall. Our R-Word Index was already at 71 before…

73 on the R-Word Index — the highest we have recorded. High Concern. The conversations are not about big economic shocks anymore. They are a…